From the Observation Deck ...

134th running of the Kentucky Derby - May 3, 2008

This could be one of the most interesting and unpredictable Derby contests since we started posting every May for the past 23 years.  There are several crosscurrents that make this handicap much tougher than usual.   First, of course, are the many horses that have run their preps on polytrack surfaces.  The fact is, some like the plastic garbage, but many cannot make the transition.

Also, there are a few items that WATT users should note.  Over the past 23 years, 16 winners (70%) have run a 630 Late Speed figure, or better, in a 1 1/8 mile race (i.e., the prior two outings).   By this measure, only five qualify in this contest - #10 (plastic), #12, #13 (plastic), #18, and #20.

And finally, the vast majority of Kentucky Derby winners have had a PM Rating of 3700 or better.  Only half of this field has done it.

In this contest, if our selection, Big Brown, wins, he'll do two things that no other has done.  First, he'll be leaving the gate (pp 20) closer to Chicago than any other horse ever.   Over the past twenty years or so, the nearest to this was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 with Kent Desormeaux aboard.  Note that Kent will be riding Big Brown, so he has experience in this department.  One more strike against him is the fact that he has run only three races (albeit, all good).

Rightly or wrongly, if we favor only those colts that have run at or near 630 Late Speed and proved very competitive on the dirt, there are five other contenders: Cool Coal Man (626 at GP), Z Humor (624 at Haw), Smooth Air (630 at GP), Recapturetheglory (642 at Haw), and Gayego (623 at OP).   Most importantly, all are morning line long shots at 15 to 1 or better.  Note that both Colonel John and Bob Black Jack have very good WATT numbers but each is moving from an artificial surface to the dirt at Churchill Downs.  Thus, this race should serve as a great test of this condition.  In short, this handicap is very risky.

To see our pace assumptions, note the Graphics Variables Screen above.

So, in this race, make it Big Brown to win, Cool Coal Man to place, and Z Humor or Smooth Air for third.  For those handicappers who are playing the exotics, this is likely to be a very exciting day.

Results:

Handicappers can learn a big lesson from the Derby results today.  In the field of 20 horses, there were 9 that ran prep races on the polytrack - nearly half.  Of the first 5 to cross the finish line NONE trained on the plastic.  Of the first 10 to cross the line, 7 trained on the dirt.  The lesson is clear, if owners and trainers want their entries to win dirt races, they should avoid the plastic surface.

In my 40+ years of handicapping, I've seen a fair number of very good horses euthanized, including great athletes like Ruffian, and others.  In most cases, these were competitive animals with big hearts, but could never measure up physically.  The trainer is usually to blame.  Every horse in this year's Derby had a 1 1/8 mile prep race EXCEPT #5.  In fact, every Derby winner over the past 23 years has run at least one prep race at that distance.  In my opinion, trainer Larry Jones and owner Rick Porter do not deserve that place money!

Big Brown sported the highest dirt figures and is clearly the best of this year's crop.  I believe he stands a good chance to win the Triple Crown.  Eight Belles, the filly that finished second, was, for me, the surprise of the day.  She battled nineteen colts and proved to be much more competitive than I first imagined.  Denis of Cork, a sprinter with the fourth highest PM Rating, finished third.

Recapturetheglory ran a very impressive Derby race, finishing 5th.  Watch this one in the Preakness!

The winner paid $6.80 to win, $5.00 to place, and $4.80 to show.  The exacta paid a handsome $141.60 and the trifecta paid $3,445.60.  The winning time, 2:01.4, was much better than expected.

       Jeff Little, Publisher           

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Attention WATT Users:

Do you want to see the Derby winners for the past 23 years?  Download and install this WATT Race File into your TRACK folder...

DerbyWin.cd

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While waiting for the next big race, racing fans might enjoy this:

It's FREE ...

Two handicapping friends try to make their first big "score" at the track

Short Story

  HorseRacingUSA Speed & Pace Basics

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Here is one of the better payoffs that I've seen lately.  It isn't every day that my key horse pays $41.80 to win.  This occurred at Calder on Sunday, May 5, 2008.

4th Race - #2 Red Hot Romance  (Top PM-rated horse)    10 - 1 Morning Line
   $41.80 win     $16.40 place     $9.80 show

            Jeff Little, Publisher                     

Below are two of the more extraordinary e-mails I've received recently.  Great performances such as these are, of course, outside of the norm, but I thought I'd share them with you anyway ...  These unsolicited notes are for real.

Subject:  Big Payoffs at Hollywood
Date:  Tue, 11 Dec 2007  11:37 EDT
From:  YYY@netzero.net

To: JBLittle@BellSouth.net

Jeff:

If you are looking for a free advertisement for the  Winning at the Track program you need to look no further than Hollywood Park on 12-9-07. Using the Best-4 PM ratings in each race your program  nailed a cold exacta in the 7th that paid $721.00 for a $1.00 exacta. The winner paid $110.00 to win and was the top PM choice in that race with 30:1 morning line odds.

While meager in comparison, the program also had an exacta box with the top two PM choices in the 3rd race that paid $111.00 for a $1.00 exacta.  This was despite a 7 horse field.    WOW !!!!    

Terry YYY

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Subject:  MNR 8-14
Date:  Tue, 15 Aug 2006  26:13 EDT
From:  XXX@aol.com

Tom XXX

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