Catching the Monster in tomorrow's race...
Like Pulling a Rabbit From a Hat?
Don't You Believe It!
Tips 'n Touts
Caveat emptor ...
Remember now - This is horse racing!
We're not gonna be right EVERY TIME.
And, above all... keep your sense of humor!
Belmont Park - Saturday, June 9, 2018
Handicapping the Belmont Stakes:
If it rains, it will be, I believe, the first time in history that all three Triple Crown races have been run in the slop. Sad. If the surface is dry and fast, then we might see exactly how good Justify is. So far, there's little evidence that he can be ranked among past champions like Dr. Fager and Secretariat. Looking back over the past thirty years of handicapping the Belmont with WATT, at least twenty of the winners could be better than Justify. But remember, this is a HORSE RACE. It isn't how fast Justify is, it's how much better he is than the rest of this field.
The scenario is similar to the Preakness. #1 Justify is the one to catch with the most early speed and Todd Pletcher's #9 Noble Indy could be a rabbit for his other entry, #8 Vino Rosso. If it rains, a repeat of the Derby or Preakness could be in the offing and the Triple Crown will probably be his.
So, for the fun if it, I'll bet the track is fast and dry and the finish will be #8 Vino Rosso to win, #9 Noble Indy for place, #4 Hofburg or #3 Bravazo for show and the others in pursuit. One thing is for sure, this is a more contentious contest than the odds dictate. And we'll see how much the Preakness drained from Justify's best effort.
If this all proves correct, the payoffs could be boxcar amounts.
The 2018 Belmont had a few interesting twists. The track was dry and fast and, as expected, Justify immediately went to the front. However, Bob Baffert is no dummy. He sent the stable mate of Justify, #5 Restoring Hope, out early to help jockey Gary Stevens slow the pace. How good is Justify? His winning time was 10 lengths slower than 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and 20 lengths slower than 1973 record-holder Secretariat.
When New England Patriots great tight end Rob Gronkowski joined a group of Dubai investors to buy a good horse, they named the $400k foal Gronkowski (#6 post position). After six races overseas, he won four times and placed once; and the group spent good money to ship him to North America. Though not fit for the Derby or Preakness, he finished second in the 2018 Belmont.
#1 Justify won, #6 Gronkowski was second, #4 Hofburg was third; and #8 Vino Rosso finished 4th. Bravazo and Noble Indy were far behind.
The 1-6 Exacta paid $89, the 1-6-4 Trifecta returned $460, and the 1-4-6-8 Superfecta paid $1,051.
The upcoming summer meets appear quite promising given the extensive talents abound.
Jeff Little, Publisher
Attention: WATT Handicappers
The WATT Wizard is a new feature at the Tout Corner. Periodically, "key horse" possibilities will be posted here. Below are a few e-Reports that explain many handicapping ideas for those who use the WATT program - and for those who don't.
The World's First Web-based Handicapping Program!
Jeff Little, Publisher
I'm using my iPad and handicapped Santa Anita. I'm in heaven!
Sitemap to HorseRacingUSA.com
Handicapping Rules to Consider
1. Your Key Horse will be among the three highest PM-Rated horses 85-90% of the time.
2. One of the two Pacesetters will be in the exacta about 50% of the time
3. Look for "Talent Gaps" among your top three or four.
4. Question any Key Horse that has not run the "Race Minimum" in its last three races.
5. The first Contender selection is highly reliable using the new interactive program.
6. Avoid MSW and Maiden Claiming races featuring more than three first-time starters.
Perhaps there should be a rule #7 ... Maintain a positive attitude. Scared money rarely wins at the race track. There are many external factors that could influence the way your day unfolds. One of the best cartoonists of our day, the late Jeff MacNelly, presents one of them here:
The Tout Corner
Suggestion, idea, tip? Contact the Publisher!
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