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Thoroughbred Racing:
Handicapping With WATT
Case Studies - Continued
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This was an easy-to-handicap trifecta. Did you see it?
pp #5 Jeblar Sez Who $23.00
$5.80 $3.40
pp #6 Albert The Great
$3.20 $2.60
pp #7 Pete's Sake
$5.40
Trifecta $465.40
The Handicap
Screen One of the PACE ANALYST showed an expected pace of 76 (1:11.4) but the three early speed horses shown on the left (6, 7, and 1) had been running sprints, mostly, not routes. Therefore, a pace of 5-7 lengths slower (ie, 1:13 or so) was expected for this 1 1/16 mile contest. Also, it should be noted that Jeblar Sez Who has run THREE races better than every other animal in this race - except Albert The Great.
The Variables Screen of the GRAPHICS module shows us which contenders can win, assuming the ability to run within two lengths of a 1:13 pace (a 70 Pole Speed) and a 574 minimum Late Speed figure at the wire ...
Most handicappers and many handicapping computer programs rely on the LAST pace line. Mainly for this reason, the winner, Jeblar Sez Who, was a long shot when the gate opened. Compare his Late Speed screen to that of the favorite, Albert The Great. Notice that both should be capable of running a 1:13 in this race but, between these two, only Jeblar Sez Who had actually done it ... and at Gulfstream.
The show horse in this contest proved to be Pete's Sake. He had run one 7 furlong race (a good prep for a 1 1/16 distance) and improved his second time out, as expected. Stokes, the other pacesetter and a shipper from the North, was also capable of routes. So, he had to be included in the betting schemes as well. However, considering the odds, that was no problem.
Once the handicap was complete, it was clear that only one of our top two could be the winner - and it would most likely be Jeblar Sez Who. Clearly, both Pete's Sake and Stokes had a chance to place. However, after this, the primary question was: "Which horse would be third?" In short, this race presented an ideal trifecta opportunity!