HorseRacingUSA.com
Thoroughbred Racing:
Handicapping With WATT
Case Studies - Continued
(Remember to hit "Refresh" Often)
Was cashing this $244 exacta ticket just luck? Judge for yourself ...
pp #5 Miss Buchareena $7.00
$4.80 $3.20
pp #9 Obatala
$74.20 $29.60
Exacta $244.40
The Handicap
Below is how this Maiden Claimer for 3YO fillies appeared on Screen One of the PACE ANALYST module. The three boxes to the left present the best, second-best, and third-best rankings of Pole Speed (ie, speed to the second call). The lower right corner shows the two pacesetters (A Gal Above and Follow A Star). The best, second-best, and third-best Late Speed figures are ranked and listed in the columns on the right. For instance, Kiss Me Kwick's best Late Speed race (560) had a 64 Pole Speed and a 140 Last Quarter. Her second-best effort (555) was derived from a 60 Pole Speed and a 137 Last Quarter. But how appropriate for today's 1 1/16 mile contest are these figures?
The PACE ANALYST is estimating a pace of 64 (1:14.1) for this contest. So, now, we must determine which horses are capable of running about this fast for at least the first 6 furlongs in today's race of 1 1/16 miles. By reviewing the Late Speed screen for each horse, we discover seven horses in the field capable of running a Pole Speed of 62 or faster, but only TWO, Miss Buckareena and Obatala, have accomplished it at a distance of 1 mile or longer. In fact, it can be said that these are the only two in this contest that have been running routes on a regular basis. Now, almost immediately. it becomes clear that Miss Buchareena is the "one to beat." This is her Late Speed Screen ...
(Note: The blank line was a turf race removed earlier)
Next, by comparing the Late Speed screen above to that of Kiss Me Kwick and Obatala, we note that these three have run against each other in the past (which could be the reason Obatala went to the post as a 78 to 1 long shot). Also, the WATT program has established a "race minimum" figure of 542 (top right corner), along with the number of times each filly has run this figure. However, a closer look at the expected PACE and the last two races of each warns us of an upset. Pay particular attention to the Pole Speed figures for all 1 1/16 mile contests (a time when the horses are being "rated"). Remember, too, at the second call, the race is 70% complete.
By the way, the PACE ANALYST (illustrated above) drew some of its numbers from these three Late Speed screens, so you can see here how the PACE ANALYST works and the logic of its presentation.
Could the fillies from post position 1, 2, and 11 (A Gal Above, Follow A Star, and Del Boca Vista) be much of a threat? Download the file and compare those late speed screens to these three. The answer is: "Not much."
In short, this handicap suggests the three noted above are the primary contenders - and that the rest of the field will be fighting for the show money.