Speed/Pace Handicapping with
WINNING AT THE
The PACE ANALYST - To Illustrate Depth of Talent
The GRAPHICS Section - To Compare Pace Abilities
The EXOTICS Wagering Section - To Identify Overlays
The DATABASE Transfer - To Create WATT Race Files
Need HELP using BRIS DRF files in the DATABASE?
Important WATT Definitions
Users of the PACE ANALYST
and GRAPHICS modules are given two Pacesetters. One or both of these contenders will be
setting the pace at the second call (Note: the contest is about 70%
complete at this point). Pacesetter selections and the times given by the program
are usually very accurate... although greater analysis should be given to routes than
sprints. Also, neither pacesetter is necessarily the winner. (Actually,
at most tracks, one of these two will be in the exacta 50-60% of the time).
A horse's Pole Speed
rating measures exactly how fast it runs to the second call point.
The Pace of the race is defined as the Pole Speed of the LEADER at the second call point (thus, called "the
pacesetter"). Handicappers should note the precise Pole Speed at which time a
horse's ability to finish the contest becomes compromised ... and measured by the
"Last Quarter" rating.
How fast a horse runs from the second call point to the finish line is called the Last Quarter. The term Late Speed refers to the Pole Speed combined with the Last Quarter. As a general rule, early-speed horses have high Pole Speed figures and low Last Quarter numbers - whereas, off-the-pace runners and closers tend to display higher Last Quarter figures, but lower Pole Speed numbers.
The old saying "Pace Makes the Race" is true. A solid, "classy" horse with good Last Quarter numbers may never have a chance to win if the pace of the race is faster than his capability allows.
The PACE ANALYST:
The PACE ANALYST displays and ranks the best, second-best, and third-best races of the major contenders in each contest. Among the figures shown are -- the Pole Speed (ranked), and Late Speed (ranked), and the expected winning time of the race. It is not unusual here to see one horse with a second-best effort better than the best efforts of other horses. This so-called "Depth of Talent" offers a valuable perspective to the overall handicap. And, at the right pace, these "Stick-outs" are oftentimes our key.
With the PACE ANALYST, it is possible to see the point at which a horse becomes incapable of competing effectively late in the stretch. Some horses, for example, can compete running a Pole Speed of, say, 92, while others might show a tendency to FOLD whenever they are forced to run a pace of only 90. Many users will dismiss a contender as a possible winner whenever it is not capable of running within at least 4 lengths of the expected pace. The Name Line "Notes" (immediately following the horse's name) can be useful here.
Users should remember that the PACE ANALYST
is a DISPLAY-ONLY view of the race (the display always remains the same). However,
the GRAPHICS Section is INTERACTIVE (it responds to the user's input).
The GRAPHICS Section:
The GRAPHICS section is considered by many handicappers as the most valuable segment within the entire Winning at the Track package. This module is used for three primary purposes - First, it is a means of judging the competitive nature of the overall race (note the vertical bars) and whether it represents a profit opportunity. Second, it can help narrow the field of possibilities to a manageable group of viable contenders. And, third, this segment can illustrate the superiority of one contender when compared with another at a specific pace.
Before all else, many Winning at the Track users glance at screen four of the GRAPHICS Section as a fast and easy way to determine if any horses possess meaningful statistical advantages over all the others in the field. The vertical bars illustrate the best and second-best P/M Ratings for each animal. If no "stick-outs" appear, the race can be considered too contentious and is probably not worth playing.
By far, the module's most popular section is the "Variables Screen." By entering the expected pace (accurately prompted by the program) and three other variables, the user is presented with every horse capable of meeting those expectations. For example, the Variables Screen can display every horse in the contest capable of winning after running within 2 lengths of a 45.2 pace at the half. This is an extremely powerful tool! The WATTwin program features a new and very potent addition - the ability to remove sprints before presenting the pole speed of each horse.
The EXOTICS WAGERING Section:
The EXOTICS Section is designed to improve the betting process. It is especially valuable when used in a "laptop" or in a "handheld" unit on site at the track. This module helps the handicapper establish a realistic "odds line" for each of four contenders, and then presents the most likely exacta and trifecta payoffs for various wager combinations. Its primary objective is to identify overlays.
Another valuable application of the Exotics Section is the "Average" statistics. For example, horses with a high average Late Speed figure should be examined carefully and this may be useful in Key Horse selection.
Learn By Downloading Files:
Handicappers using the Winning at the Track speed/pace program can download the real-life files from this site to gain additional "hands-on" experience.
Unlike most other computer programs, Winning at the Track draws on more than just one paceline (i.e., up to eight) for each horse. And users can decide whether each horse's History Worksheet should remain as is, or if it should be changed. This review process (one of the major benefits of the DATABASE) requires about two minutes per race. The user is in total control of the numbers going into the program! In most cases, the worksheets should not be altered. However, once in a while data is removed (turf lines for a dirt race, for example) to give a more accurate picture of each horse's ability for the upcoming contest.
Need Help with BRIS?
If you are unsure about the downloading process and how these files are to be used in your Winning at the Track program, take a few minutes to review theTRANSFER.pdf file that was included with your initial program. Or if you need help with BRIS, go to this web page that explains, step-by-step, your Bloodstock Research setup and downloading ... Bris Help. Do you want to set up a new BRIS account? Call their offices at (800) 354-9206. It's easy. But, to save time, be sure to read our BRIS instructions.
Bris for the Novice
The Database Program and How it Works:
The Winning at the Track DATABASE software has two primary functions: 1) To Transfer data from data source files that have been received from Bloodstock Research (BRIS); or 2) To Store the history of individual horses if the user wishes to do so.
In the majority of cases, the DATABASE Transfer segment is used to create WATT race files using BRIS data (their "Single File" .DRF format). So, in this case, the DATABASE is not used for entering data, but only as a means of deciding which data to keep, or which to delete. Thus, a WATT race file (one race card at one track) can be made in less than 10 minutes for only $1.00 per file. And, typically, a data source file can be received two days in advance. WATT users especially appreciate the total control they have with data entry!
Here is a general explanation of the DATABASE: The Database
you are a WATT user and want step-by-step instructions with the BRIS files, click here!
Finding a Key Horse Without the Key Horse Program Always remember, your "Key Horse" will be found among the Top-3 PM Ratings the vast majority of the time. By applying solid handicapping with the program and its special features, here are a few suggestions - Form
Check the Ability Factor (the last three outings)
Raced within past 2-3 weeks + workouts, if required.
Look at total number of furlongs run in past 3 or 4 weeks.
First-time starters require good 5f workouts.
Consider Earned $ and Average Purse $ vs others.
Look at "Last Time in the Money" vs others.
To: Home Page
To: Products & Services
Return to: The Tout Corner